National Health Expenditure Projections, 2025–34
Article Publication Date
Summary
CMS has released its updated National Health Expenditure Projections. This report provides detailed insight into health expenditure projections between 2025 and 2034.
In 2025, national health expenditures are projected to have reached $5.7 trillion, reflecting a growth of 7.3% in 2024 and the third consecutive year of growth. Elevated growth in health expenditures is projected to continue in 2026, partially due to continued demand for high-cost retail prescription drugs, including glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1s). After 2026, CMS projections show a moderation in health spending growth, caused in part by changes to Medicaid coverage in recent legislation, which will reduce Medicaid spending and increase the number of Americans without insurance coverage. However, Medicare spending is projected to experience the highest spending growth among major payers, reflecting faster per enrollee spending growth and faster enrollment growth driven by demographic factors.
Overall, health spending is expected to continue to grow more rapidly than economic resources over the next decade, driven by the use of medical services and goods, as well as demographic changes. Despite expected declines in coverage, the insured share of the population is expected to be more than 90% in 2034.
In 2025, national health expenditures are projected to have reached $5.7 trillion, reflecting a growth of 7.3% in 2024 and the third consecutive year of growth. Elevated growth in health expenditures is projected to continue in 2026, partially due to continued demand for high-cost retail prescription drugs, including glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1s). After 2026, CMS projections show a moderation in health spending growth, caused in part by changes to Medicaid coverage in recent legislation, which will reduce Medicaid spending and increase the number of Americans without insurance coverage. However, Medicare spending is projected to experience the highest spending growth among major payers, reflecting faster per enrollee spending growth and faster enrollment growth driven by demographic factors.
Overall, health spending is expected to continue to grow more rapidly than economic resources over the next decade, driven by the use of medical services and goods, as well as demographic changes. Despite expected declines in coverage, the insured share of the population is expected to be more than 90% in 2034.